Hays County Home Prices and Inventory: October 2026

October's Hays County numbers point to a market with more room to negotiate: the median sales price was $371,080, down 4.9% from a year ago, and there were 6.9 months of inventory. Pending sales rose 10.6% even as closed sales fell, so buyers are still out there, but they have more homes to choose from and more leverage on price and terms.

If you are deciding whether to list before the holidays or wait for spring, or whether to start looking now, the details below are what I would weigh. All figures come from the Unlock MLS October 2026 Central Texas Housing Report, posted Nov. 11.

Key takeaways

• Median sales price: $371,080, down 4.9% year over year
• Closed sales: 296, down 8.1%
• Active listings: 1,916, up 7.5%
• New listings: 447, down 4.5%
• Pending sales: 354, up 10.6%
• Months of inventory: 6.9, up 1.3 months from a year ago
• Average close-to-list price: 92.2%, compared with 92.5% a year earlier
• A county median describes what happened to sell that month. It is not a statement about your home.

What the median does and does not tell you

The median is the middle sale price of the homes that closed in October. With 296 closings countywide, the mix of what sold moves the number a lot. Hays County covers everything from older homes in San Marcos to new construction around Kyle and Buda, so a few more entry-level closings or a few fewer higher-priced ones can pull the median down without any single home losing value.

Unlock MLS made a similar point about the Austin-area metro. Its report says the metro median fell 6.9% to $404,802, and it attributes part of that drop to a larger share of lower-priced sales. I would read Hays County's 4.9% drop with the same caution. It is a useful signal about the October sold pool. It is not a measure of what a specific house is worth, and it is not a forecast.

You may also notice that last month's median was $399,900. I would not compare the two months directly. They are different months with different mixes of sales, and I covered the earlier figure in our September breakdown, where I also walked through why one month's median can bounce.

Inventory is the number to watch

Months of inventory is how long it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace of closings. Hays County is at 6.9 months, up 1.3 months from October 2025. The Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro is at 6.2 months, up 0.4.

Two pieces of the report explain the build. Active listings are up 7.5% to 1,916, and closed sales are down 8.1%. New listings were down 4.5%, so this is not a flood of new sellers. It is homes taking longer to sell and staying on the market.

For a buyer, that means more choice and more room to ask. For a seller, it means the home has to be priced and presented well from day one. A listing that starts too high tends to sit while newer listings take the attention.

Pending sales rose, and that matters

The most encouraging line for sellers is pending sales: 354, up 10.6% from last October. Pending contracts are the closest thing in this report to current buyer activity, because they show homes that went under contract but have not closed yet. Closed sales look backward. Pending sales look a few weeks forward.

I would not oversell that. One month of pending sales does not make a trend, and the metro figure moved the other way, down 4.0%. But it is a reminder that buyers are still writing offers in Hays County. They are just doing it with more options and more room to negotiate.

Negotiation: what 92.2% means

The average close-to-list price in Hays County was 92.2% in October, against 92.5% a year earlier. That is an average across every kind of sale, including new construction, so please do not treat it as the discount you should expect on a particular home.

What it does say is that homes are not typically closing at full list price. In a market like this, I would expect to talk with buyers about price, repairs, closing cost help and timing, not just price. If you are selling, deciding in advance what you are willing to give is worth more than defending every line and losing two weeks. If you are buying, an inspection and a reasonable ask are normal conversations. Our post on the Texas option period explains how that window works.

Resale versus new construction

Unlock MLS research advisor Vaike O'Grady said in the report that affordability challenges continue to weigh on the market and that resale homes are becoming more competitive with new construction. She also noted that builder incentives may be losing some of their edge. That is her read on the metro, not a prediction for any one community.

If you are comparing a new build with a resale home in Kyle or Buda, it is worth pricing both side by side, including what the builder is offering and what the resale seller may be willing to do. Our new construction page for Kyle is a good starting point, and our recent look at Crosswinds in Kyle shows how that comparison can work in practice.

John Crowe, the 2026 Unlock MLS and ABoR president, said softer prices and slower sales may give buyers more negotiating room, while sellers need to stay competitive on pricing. I agree with the second half of that most strongly.

A quick look at rentals

The report also covers leases. Hays County had 183 closed leases, down 5.7%, with a median rent of $1,995, up 2.3%. Active lease listings were 441, down 16.9%, and months of lease inventory was 2.6. For anyone weighing selling against renting out a home, rental supply is much tighter than for-sale supply right now. Our September rental market post goes deeper on that.

What I would do with this

If you are selling: start with comparable sales on your street and in your neighborhood from the last 90 days, not the county median. A home value estimate is a starting point, and I am happy to walk through the comps with you. Our seller page covers how we prepare a listing.

If you are buying: with 1,916 active listings, you can afford to be selective. Look at several homes, compare them to recent sales, and ask for what makes sense. Dustin is a licensed mortgage loan originator as well as an agent, so he can walk through the monthly numbers on a purchase with you. See our buyer page to get started.

If you are not sure yet: that is fine. Our market update page is a good place to follow along, and a conversation costs nothing.

Talk to Kristin

If you want to know what these numbers mean for your street, call or text me at 512-820-3084, or reach out through our contact page.

Sources

• Unlock MLS, October 2026 Central Texas Housing Report (posted Nov. 11, 2026)
• Unlock MLS, News